CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2020-11-29T13:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2020-11-29T13:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16156/-1
CME Note: An eruption from the active region beyond the southeastern limb of the Earth-facing disk resulted in a M4.4 flare that peaked at 2020-11-29T13:11Z. This eruption resulted in a CME in the SE of STEREO-A COR2A (partial halo) and in the east of SOHO C2 starting around 2020-11-29T13:24Z; the CME front can later be seen in SOHO C3 at 2020-11-29T13:30Z. (NOTE: The time of this CME has been updated to 2020-11-29T13:24Z as that is the first available image the CME is seen in STEREO-A COR2; the originally input time was 2020-11-29T13:00Z.) Lan Jian - I think there may be a shock near 21UT on Dec 1. DSCOVR data show sharp increases of Np, V, and Tp at the time. After the shock, there seems to be some smooth magnetic field rotations during about 02-20 UT on Dec 2. However, the peak total field strength is only about 7 nT, quite weak. The Bz south reaches only about 3 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-12-01T21:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-01T00:10Z (-9.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM_V2. ****************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1400.0 km/s u_r = 1479.32 Acceleration: -4.98712 Duration in seconds: 125137.21 Duration in days: 1.4483473 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -4.99 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 855.2 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/12/2020 Time: 00:10 UTLead Time: 23.00 hour(s)
Difference: 20.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2020-11-30T22:00Z
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